A predictive model for household displacement duration after disasters.

Summary: When a hurricane or wildfire strikes, the immediate damage is obvious—broken windows, flooded basements, and power outages. But the hidden crisis is often how long families remain homeless after the storm passes. Recent data shows that while most people return home quickly, about 20% are displaced for over a month, and 14% haven't returned at all.

Researchers have developed new computer models to predict who is most at risk of this long-term displacement. They found that looking at physical damage isn't enough. The most accurate predictions come from looking at "socioeconomic" factors—specifically, whether a family owns their home or rents, and their household income. By using these new tools, cities like Atlantic City are learning that to help people recover, they need to fix more than just buildings; they need to support the financial resilience of the families living in them.